Complexity Emergence

Abstract

 

Big History, the study of the entire time span of the universe in an integrated way, is essentially a study of increasing complexity. Complexity grows exponentially with the Golden Ratio, Phi, and has done so unabruptly since the beginning of time, and will continue to do so until the end of time.

  

Introduction

Complexity is a notoriously difficult concept to define. Its linguistical origin lies in the Latin word complexus, meaning entwined or twisted together, suggesting that what we consider to be complex are entities that consist of components that operate together, inseparately. Furthermore, these inseparable components have unique properties that the components themselves do not exhibit.

I like to relate entropy to complexity. In the universe entropy is set to increase, because more chaotic, or high entropic configurations, are more likely. Complexity then, can be defined as what happens when entities travel the opposite direction, they export entropy to keep there own entropy low.

 It is of course, a relative concept, e.g. when the first molecules formed, they were the most complex, but they are simple, in comparison with multicellar life. It is also impossible to measure, difficult to quantify and often a mere qualitative concept in use. That hasn’t deterred people from making the credible claim that the human brain is the most complex structure in the known universe (1), where signals can travel over a combined 176,000 km of axons or roughly half the distance from here to the moon and neurons are able to make more interactions than there are atoms in the universe. It is also the most complex structure in known history, but it will possibly be usurped in complexity by the worldwide web in the near future. This bar the fact, that we still have no mathematical way to tell if a Boeing 767 or a cucumber is the more complex of the two (after Kevin Kelly (2)).

The rise of complexity is the story behind the Big History, it is the red thread to it and I would like to take it a step further, and call it the driving force behind it; a driving force with a deterministic and constant exponential value.

Every increase in complexity will allow an even faster increase of complexity from there on. The creation of atoms, allowed the creation of the more complex molecule, which in turn allowed the construction of cellular life, which all occurred at an ever faster pace. It is subject to the Law of Accelerating Returns, as proposed by Ray Kurzeil, which states that future increases will be greater than those of the past, because growth is dependent on your starting point (3). I will rewrite this definition, and claim that future growth is just as dependent on your starting point now, as past growth was dependent on your starting point then. In other words, the ratio of the sum of the quantities to the larger quantity is equal to the ratio of the larger quantity to the smaller one, which than is the definition of the Golden Ratio, or Phi (see figure 1).

Where the universe can be defined as a system that is in a constant process of increasing its entropy or its amount of randomness. Complexity and life, travel the complete opposite road, they have negentropy or negative entropy, which is the entropy that it exports to keep its own entropy low. It seems that it is these two forces that are shaping the “Big Future”.

Phi, the Golden Ratio

The rate with which complexity grows is the only rate that ensures exponential growth on equal terms at any point in time; the Golden Ratio, or Phi, which is 1.6180339887. Phi is observed in many objects that exhibit growth and are unrestricted by resource limits; such as plants, trees, celestial bodies and human bodies (e.g. a children’s illness can hamper growth and cause deviations from phi, which are perceived as malformations).

This is because Phi is the only number that allows equal growth independent of scale. No matter where you are in time, future C, will always be equal to starting point B + past complexity A, in the same way that the starting complexity B was obtained from past complexity A + the complexity before it.

     

Figure 1: Future complexity A+B is to starting complexity A, as starting complexity A was to past complexity B or mathematically:

 

 Where we to mark each transition in discrete intervals n, one could describe the length of each colored line below as Phi to the power n, which leads to another interesting mathematical ability of Phi, namely 

  

Hypothesis

The greater complexities of today will cause an increase in complexities of tomorrow at a same rate as the complexities of yesterday caused those of today.

To investigate the rate of complexity growth, I turn to an idea by Ray Kurzweil, to select several key events in our existence, and see how much time it takes to the next, from which an idea of accelerating pace of complexity growth can be obtained. To the left I posted a table with what were in my opinion key events that pointed to an increase in complexity. Subsequently I plotted those on a graph (figure 2). A trendline was added. In red one can find the logarithmic function of the Golden Ratio, Phi, its trendline is x/Phi (or x/1.61803 = 0.6180x).

Because of the subjective nature of the so-called landmark events, I plotted the data accumulated by several sources, listed in the addendum. Projected are several key events in the history of man, from the Big Bang, 13.8 billion years ago, to the origin of life, 3.8 billion years ago and the rise of Homo Sapiens a couple of thousands years ago (data and idea by Ray Kurzweil). Plotted are how many years ago the event took place on one hand, and on the other, how much time it took to the next event. The axes are logarithmic, meaning that the increasing occurrences of landmark events are in fact governed by exponential growth. I also plotted several exponential power functions, with in red f(x) = Phi to the power of x, with Phi =1.61803 (Golden Ratio) and in black to compare a power function 1.25 to the power x  and 3 to the power x.

There is the illusion that the graph will hit zero in a few years, marking the onset of the technical singularity. I dispute that and state that the graph will always have looked as if the singularity was near and it always will look as such. This is the nature of exponential complexity growth; it will look impressively steep in comparison with the past, but drudgingly slow compared with the future (4). The Golden Ratio ensures that this comparison between the past, the present and the future is always in the same ratio (see figure 1).

I further propose that on any point in time our ancestor was the most complex object in the known universe. From the near infinite possibilities of change of all the different matter in the universe, there always will be a significant chunk of that getting as fast as possible more complex. Our ancestor, as far as you can speak of it, was the first atom, the first heavy element, the first molecule, the first cellular life, the first sexual reproduced being, the first oxygen using organism, the first mammal, etc. As is the case with the many different genera of Homo that lived from 2 millions ago to up to a couple of thousands years ago, such as Homo Neanderthalis and Homo Erectus, there would be trial and error to decide of several more or less equally complex beings, before this process determined a optimum form; with parts incorporated from other genera, such as Neanderthal genes in ours (similarly there is a theory that viruses are in essence co-evolved with the first RNA, perhaps as an alternative to it, and finally incorporated into the more successful RNA structures).

Here the principle of uniformitarianism can be applied; the present is the key to the past, the same rules and reasonings that are at play now, would have been in place in the past. Any future complex entity can only be imagined to come from us. It is inconceivable that we will be surpassed by any other species we know in complexity. Similarly, it would have been so in the past, and so it will be in the future, as well.

The faith of the Universe, and other implications of a deterministic complexity increase

 

Asking us to understand the complexity of the future is the equivalent theoretical exercise as to ask the first primates to describe the internet. But I will attempt nonetheless.

Complexity growth seem to be unperturbed by either major paradigm shifts, as the beginning of life, nor by major catastrophic events, such as the end Cretaceous mass extinction, as is evidenced by the remarkable straight line through all events. Also in recent times events such as the Plague, or World War 1 and 2, seem to not have halted technological and economic progress in the long run.

Figure 3: Imagine an increasing complex entity underpinning all biodiversity, enabling the creation of an ever wider range of different genera with time (5).

Figure 4: Major catastrophic historic events are not visible on GDP per capita growth, implying an underlying robustness to progress.

A second point to make is on the existence of extraterrestrial life. On many places you would expect life of lower complexity (perhaps even on other bodies in our own solar system), but on planets that have similar goldilocks conditions as ours has had, that would also have had uninterrupted complexity growth, life would have had the exact same path towards complexity as we had, exactly as fast, and at this point in time, would be exactly as complex as we are now.

Taking these assumptions, one can take them to their ultimate conclusions.

Complexity will grow indefinitely; ever complexer entities will interlink ever more to form even greater complexity. We are at the onset of the great interlinking of our brains, the internet is the first glimpse of that trend. Billions of equally complex brains will merge to form a single complex entity. This entity will than merge with billions of entities of equal complexity across the galaxy, which in the end will merge with all other complex entities in all galaxies until its complexity will rival the Universe. It will encompass all.

References:

(1) http://www.economist.com/node/21537050

(2) What Technology Wants, Kevin Kelly

(3) http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns

(4) http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2006/02/the_singularity.php

(5) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Phanerozoic_Biodiversity.png

Addendum:

Paradigm Shifts for 15 Lists of Key Events, Time to Next Event (Years), Logarithmic Plot
Paradigm Shifts
Source (List)	Event	Time Before Present (Years)	Time to Next Event (Years)
Carl Sagan	Big Bang	15000000000	5000000000
Carl Sagan	Origin of Milky Way Galaxy	10000000000	5400000000
Carl Sagan	Origin of the Solar System	4600000000	200000000
Carl Sagan	Formation of the Earth	4400000000	400000000
Carl Sagan	Origin of life on Earth	4000000000	300000000
Carl Sagan	Formation of the oldest rocks known on Earth	3700000000	300000000
Carl Sagan	Date of oldest fossils (bacteria and blue-green algae)	3400000000	900000000
Carl Sagan	Invention of sex (by microorganisms)	2500000000	500000000
Carl Sagan	Oldest fossil photosynthetic plants	2000000000	100000000
Carl Sagan	Eukaryotes (first cells with nuclei) flourish	1900000000	700000000
Carl Sagan	Significant oxygen atmosphere begins to develop on Earth	1200000000	200000000
Carl Sagan	Extensive volcanism and channel formation on Mars	1000000000	380000000
Carl Sagan	First worms	620000000	50000000
Carl Sagan	Precambrian ends. Paleozoic Era and Cambrian Period begin. Invertebrates flourish	570000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	First oceanic plankton. Trilobites flourish.	530000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	Ordovician Period. First fish, first vertebrates.	490000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	Silurian Period. First vascular plants. Plants begin colonization of land	450000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	Devonian Period begins. First insects. Animals begin colonization of land	410000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	First amphibians. First winged insects.	370000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	Carboniferous Period. First trees. First reptiles.	330000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	Permian Period begins. First dinosaurs.	290000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	Paleozoic Era ends. Mesozoic Era Begins.	250000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	Triassic Period. First mammals.	210000000	50000000
Carl Sagan	Jurassic Period. First birds.	160000000	40000000
Carl Sagan	Cretaceous Period. First flowers. Dinosaurs become extinct.	120000000	38000000
Carl Sagan	Mesozoic Era ends. Cenozoic Era Tertiary Period begins. First cetaceans. First primates.	82000000	41000000
Carl Sagan	First evolution of frontal lobes in the brain of primates. First hominids. Giant mammals flourish.	41000000	23000000
Carl Sagan	Origin of Proconsul and Ramapithecus, probable ancestors of apes and men	18000000	15400000
Carl Sagan	First humans	2600000	900000
Carl Sagan	Widespread use of stone tools	1700000	1290000
Carl Sagan	Domestication of fire by Peking man	410000	290000
Carl Sagan	Beginning of most recent glacial period	120000	62000
Carl Sagan	Seafarers settle Australia	58000	29000
Carl Sagan	Extensive cave painting in Europe	29000	10000
Carl Sagan	Invention of agriculture	19000	7000
Carl Sagan	Neolithic civilization; first cities	12000	7200
Carl Sagan	First dynasties in Summer, Ebla, and Egypt; development of astronomy	4800	500
Carl Sagan	Invention of the alphabet; Akkadian Empire	4300	500
Carl Sagan	Hammurabic legal codes in Babylon; Middle Kingdom in Egypt	3800	400
Carl Sagan	Bronze metallurgy; Mycenaean culture; Trojan War; Olmec culture; invention of the compass	3400	500
Carl Sagan	Iron metallurgy; First Assyrian Empire; Kingdom of Israel; founding of Carthage by Phoenicia	2900	500
Carl Sagan	Asokan India; Ch’in Dynasty China; Periclean Athens; birth of Buddha	2400	500
Carl Sagan	Euclidian geometry; Archimedean physics; Ptolemaic astronomy; Roman Empire; Christ	1900	500
Carl Sagan	Zero and decimals invented in Indian arithmetic; Rome falls; Moslem conquests	1400	400
Carl Sagan	Mayan civilization; Sung Dynasty China; Byzantine empire; Mongol invasion; crusades	1000	500
Carl Sagan	Renaissance in Europe; voyages of discovery from Europe and from Ming Dynasty China; emergence of the experimental method in science	500	499
Carl Sagan	Widespread development of science and technology; emergence of global culture; acquisition of the means of self-destruction of the human species; first steps in space craft planetary exploration and the search of extraterrestrial intelligence	1
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Big Bang	13000000000	3000000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Milky Way forms	10000000000	5500000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Sun and planets form	4500000000	700000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Oldest known life (single cell)	3800000000	2800000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	First multicellular organisms	1000000000	450000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Cambrian Explosion (burst of new life forms)	550000000	70000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Emergence of first vertebrates	480000000	40000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Early land plants	440000000	50000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Variety of insects begin to flourish	390000000	160000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	First dinosaurs appear	230000000	40000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	First mammalian ancestors appear	190000000	50000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	First known birds	140000000	75000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Dinosaurs wiped out by asteroid or comet	65000000	49000000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Apes appear	16000000	12100000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	First human ancestors to walk upright	3900000	2100000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Homo erectus appears	1800000	1785000
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Anatomically modern humans appear	15000	8700
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Invention of writing	6300	1700
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Pyramids built in Egypt	4600	4092
AmericanMuseum of Natural History	Voyage of Christopher Columbus	508
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Oldest prokaryotic fossils	3500000000	1000000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Oxygen begins to accumulate in atmosphere	2500000000	400000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Oldest eukaryotic fossils	2100000000	1400000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Simple multicellular organisms evolve	700000000	280000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Plants colonize land	420000000	50000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Amphibians appear	370000000	10000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	First insects	360000000	20000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Reptiles appear	340000000	60000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Mass extinction	280000000	50000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	First dinosaurs and mammals	230000000	30000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Birds evolve from reptiles	200000000	60000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	First flowering plants	140000000	74000000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Mass extinction	66000000	63600000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Ice age	2400000	2300000
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Advent of modern humans	100000	99999
Encyclopaedia Britannica	Present	1
ERAPS at University of Arizona	No life; shallow seas	4000000000	200000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Origin of simple cells	3800000000	300000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Origin of cyanobacteria	3500000000	1000000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Oxygen accumulates in atmosphere	2500000000	800000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Protists and green algae	1700000000	700000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Simple multicellular life (sponges, seaweeds)	1000000000	300000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	More invertebrates (flatworms, jellyfish)	700000000	180000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Early animals with hard parts in oceans	520000000	110000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Planets invade land	410000000	60000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Vertebrates invade land	350000000	50000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Coal forming forests, amphibians, BIG insects	300000000	70000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Mass extinction (trilobites)	230000000	30000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Pangaea, first mammals, first reptiles	200000000	135000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Mass extinction (including dinosaurs)	65000000	35000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Small mammals, humanoids	30000000	28000000
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Early Humans	2000000	1999999
ERAPS at University of Arizona	Us	1
Paul Boyer	Big bang	15000000000	10200000000
Paul Boyer	Solar system forms	4800000000	200000000
Paul Boyer	Earth forms	4600000000	600000000
Paul Boyer	Nitrogen atmosphere (for winds) is present or acquired	4000000000	100000000
Paul Boyer	Abundant water is present or acquired, Organic precursors for life forms accumulate, Primitive living organisms arise or (less likely) come from space	3900000000	400000000
Paul Boyer	Land temperature stabilizes so that most of the water is liquid	3500000000	300000000
Paul Boyer	Some life forms get energy from oxidationreduction reactions	3200000000	200000000
Paul Boyer	Organisms evolve to gain many present biochemical characteristics	3000000000	300000000
Paul Boyer	Photosynthetic capacity is acquired, and oxygen evolution begins	2700000000	100000000
Paul Boyer	Land surfaces form and plate tectonics established	2600000000	200000000
Paul Boyer	Evolution produces organisms that can use oxygen to make ATP	2400000000	300000000
Paul Boyer	Abundant microorganisms colonize the entire earth.	2100000000	1400000000
Paul Boyer	Multicellular organisms arise with increased capacity for structural differentiation	700000000	300000000
Paul Boyer	Primitive plant forms begin to evolve stems, roots, and leaves	400000000	397400000
Paul Boyer	First humans	2600000	900000
Paul Boyer	Widespread use of stone tools	1700000	700000
Paul Boyer	Acquisition of spoken language	1000000	995000
Paul Boyer	Acquisition of written language	5000	4500
Paul Boyer	They learn that knowledge comes from observation and experiment (scientific method)	500	300
Paul Boyer	Ability to control nature gives rise to a human population explosion	200	100
Paul Boyer	The above abilities give rise to a remarkable understanding of nature	100
Barrow and Silk	Big Bang	20000000000	1500000000
Barrow and Silk	Galaxies begin to form	18500000000	1500000000
Barrow and Silk	Galaxies begin to cluster	17000000000	1000000000
Barrow and Silk	Our protogalaxy collapses; first stars form	16000000000	1000000000
Barrow and Silk	Quasars are born; Population II stars form	15000000000	5000000000
Barrow and Silk	Population I stars form	10000000000	5200000000
Barrow and Silk	Our parent interstellar cloud forms	4800000000	100000000
Barrow and Silk	Collapse of protosolar nebula	4700000000	100000000
Barrow and Silk	Planets form; rock solidifies	4600000000	300000000
Barrow and Silk	Intense cratering of planets	4300000000	400000000
Barrow and Silk	Oldest terrestrial rocks form	3900000000	900000000
Barrow and Silk	Microscopic life forms	3000000000	1000000000
Barrow and Silk	Oxygen rich atmosphere develops	2000000000	1000000000
Barrow and Silk	Macroscopic life forms	1000000000	400000000
Barrow and Silk	Earliest fossil record	600000000	150000000
Barrow and Silk	First fishes	450000000	50000000
Barrow and Silk	Early land plants	400000000	100000000
Barrow and Silk	Ferns, conifers	300000000	100000000
Barrow and Silk	First mammals	200000000	50000000
Barrow and Silk	First birds	150000000	90000000
Barrow and Silk	First primates	60000000	10000000
Barrow and Silk	Mammals increase	50000000	49900000
Barrow and Silk	Homo sapiens	100000
Jean Heidmann	Big Bang, etc.	15000000000	7000000000
Jean Heidmann	Age of most distant galaxies	8000000000	3500000000
Jean Heidmann	Formation of the Sun and the Earth	4500000000	1000000000
Jean Heidmann	First bacteria	3500000000	2000000000
Jean Heidmann	First eucaryotic organisms	1500000000	1000000000
Jean Heidmann	Explosion of life in the Cambria era	500000000	496500000
Jean Heidmann	The dawn of Australopithecus	3500000	1000000
Jean Heidmann	Homo habili uses tools	2500000	1500000
Jean Heidmann	Homo erectus masters the use of fire	1000000	960000
Jean Heidmann	Invention of writing	40000	38000
Jean Heidmann	Eratosthenes measures the size of the Earth	2000	1600
Jean Heidmann	Copernicus, Galileo	400
IGPP Symposium	Formation of the Earth	4600000000	600000000
IGPP Symposium	Origin of Life on Earth	4000000000	200000000
IGPP Symposium	Formation of the oldest rocks known on Earth	3800000000	300000000
IGPP Symposium	Date of oldest fossils and stromatolites	3500000000	700000000
IGPP Symposium	Abundant cyanobacteria and stromatolites	2800000000	300000000
IGPP Symposium	Abundant iron formations	2500000000	400000000
IGPP Symposium	Latest detrital uraninite/pyrite	2100000000	200000000
IGPP Symposium	Atmospheric oxygen	1900000000	100000000
IGPP Symposium	Nucleated cells (phytoplankton)	1800000000	700000000
IGPP Symposium	Complex (sexual) phytoplankton	1100000000	250000000
IGPP Symposium	Seaweeds and protozoans	850000000	250000000
IGPP Symposium	Animals without backbones	600000000	100000000
IGPP Symposium	Fish	500000000	100000000
IGPP Symposium	Land plants and animals	400000000	100000000
IGPP Symposium	Coal swamps	300000000	100000000
IGPP Symposium	Dinosaurs and birds	200000000	100000000
IGPP Symposium	Flowering plants	100000000	98000000
IGPP Symposium	Humans	2000000
Phillip Tobias	Divergence of orangutan lineage from Hominoidea	16000000	8500000
Phillip Tobias	Divergence of gorilla from other African hominoids	7500000	1500000
Phillip Tobias	Uplift, cooling, and aridification of Africa	6000000	300000
Phillip Tobias	Chimpanzee hominid divergence, inferred appearance of Hominidae	5700000	200000
Phillip Tobias	“Messinian crisis”, the drying up of the Mediterranean / Spread of African savannah / etc.	5500000	700000
Phillip Tobias	Earliest known fossils identifiable as probable hominid	4800000	1000000
Phillip Tobias	Earliest fossil evidence of hominid bipedalism	3800000	1000000
Phillip Tobias	Hominid fossils known	2800000	100000
Phillip Tobias	Differentiation of postulated “derived A. africanus”	2700000	100000
Phillip Tobias	One or more splittings of hominid lineage; earliest known Australopithecus boisei fossils;      earliest known stone cultural remains.	2600000	300000
Phillip Tobias	Acquisition of spoken language (as here inferred); many changes in mammalian fauna of   Africa (baboons, elephants, pigs, bovids, hippopotami, sabertoothed cats, rodents)	2300000	200000
Phillip Tobias	Earliest known Homo habilis fossils	2100000	100000
Phillip Tobias	Earliest modern human brain form; earliest signs of marked brain enlargement in hominids.	2000000	200000
Phillip Tobias	Movement of hominids from Africa to Asia and Europe	1800000	100000
Phillip Tobias	Emergence of Homo erectus	1700000	400000
Phillip Tobias	Acquisition of fire by H. erectus	1300000	100000
Phillip Tobias	Extinction of robust and hyperrobust australopithecines	1200000	700000
Phillip Tobias	Emergence of Homo sapiens	500000	390000
Phillip Tobias	Earliest known “anatomically modern Homo sapiens”	110000	10000
Phillip Tobias	Earliest burial of the dead	100000	60000
Phillip Tobias	Emergence of “modern human culture)	40000	5000
Phillip Tobias	Earliest rock art; earliest protowriting	35000	30000
Phillip Tobias	Earliest writing	5000
David Nelson	Planet earth forms	4500000000	500000000
David Nelson	Planet surface cools and bombardment from space slows, so life has the possibility      of existing on the planet.  Oldest earth rocks dated by radioactivity.	4000000000	100000000
David Nelson	Evidence for life seen in Greenland rocks enriched in C12 isotope. Prokaryotes diverge  from archaea. Chlorophyll and photosynthesis evolve in the bacterial lineage.	3900000000	200000000
David Nelson	First banded iron formation seen. Implies oxygen made by photosynthesis	3700000000	200000000
David Nelson	First stromatolites seen.	3500000000	1400000000
David Nelson	First tentative evidence of a eukaryotic microfossil	2100000000	100000000
David Nelson	Oxygen begins to rise in the atmosphere after oxygen sinks saturated.	2000000000	500000000
David Nelson	Oxygen level in the atmosphere reaches present day level and stabilizes. More convincing evidence of eukaryotic microfossils.  Chloroplasts and mitochondria present.	1500000000	300000000
David Nelson	Major eukaryotic phyla diverge. Plants branched before animals/fungi	1200000000	600000000
David Nelson	Invertebrates and vertebrates diverge. Hox gene cluster exists.	600000000	70000000
David Nelson	Cambrian explosion of fossil record.	530000000	130000000
David Nelson	Fish and other vertebrates diverge. Plants and fungi invade the land	400000000	20000000
David Nelson	Vertebrates move onto land	380000000	20000000
David Nelson	Gymnosperms (naked seed plants) diverge from angiosperms (flowering plants)	360000000	60000000
David Nelson	Birds and other vertebrates diverge.	300000000	120000000
David Nelson	Monocots diverge from dicots	180000000	40000000
David Nelson	Oldest angiosperm fossil	140000000	80000000
David Nelson	Last common ancestor of all polymorphism sequences	60000000	55000000
David Nelson	Chimpanzees and humans diverge	5000000	3300000
David Nelson	Homo sapiens	1700000	1500000
David Nelson	Last common ancestor of all human mitochondrial DNA types	200000	141000
David Nelson	Modern humans	59000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Purgatorius	60000000	5000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Petrolemuridae	55000000	10000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Adapiformes, omomylformes	45000000	5000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Aegyptopithecus, Propliapithecus, Oligopithecus, Catopithecus	40000000	2000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Afrotarsius	38000000	11000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Omomylformes, Branisella	27000000	9000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Prohylobates, Micropithecus, Afropithecus Proconsul	18000000	3000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Kenyopithecus, Dryopithecus	15000000	4000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Krishnapithecus	11000000	1000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Sivapithecus	10000000	500000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Ouranopithecus	9500000	3000000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Samburu maxilla	6500000	1500000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Gigantopithecus	5000000	3200000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Orangutans, emergence of stone tools	1800000	300000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Appearance of the erectines	1500000	870000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Acheulian technology	630000	80000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Homo erectus	550000	200000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Homo heidelbergensis	350000	120000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Control of fire	230000	30000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Homo sapiens, modern humans	200000	70000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Neanderthalis	130000	60000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Mousterian technology	70000	35000
Goran Burenhult (ed.)	Art	35000
Johanson and Edgar	Ardipithecus ramidus	4400000	200000
Johanson and Edgar	Australopithecus anamensis	4200000	300000
Johanson and Edgar	Australopithecus afarensis	3900000	1100000
Johanson and Edgar	Australopithecus africanus	2800000	100000
Johanson and Edgar	Australopithecus aethiopicus	2700000	200000
Johanson and Edgar	Homo sp?	2500000	100000
Johanson and Edgar	Homo rudolfensis	2400000	100000
Johanson and Edgar	Australopithecus boisei	2300000	400000
Johanson and Edgar	Homo habilis / Australopithecus habilis	1900000	100000
Johanson and Edgar	Homo ergaster	1800000	600000
Johanson and Edgar	Homo erectus	1200000	600000
Johanson and Edgar	Homo heldelbergensis	600000	300000
Johanson and Edgar	Homo neanderthalensis	300000	200000
Johanson and Edgar	Homo sapiens	100000
Modis 2002	Big Bang / quarks / protons & neutrons / atoms of elements	15000000000	3000000000
Modis 2002	First stars	12000000000	7400000000
Modis 2002	First planets / rock solidification / solar system	4600000000	800000000
Modis 2002	First life / cooling of Earth / formation of first rocks / water forms	3800000000	2800000000
Modis 2002	First multicellular life (sponges, seaweeds)	1000000000	470000000
Modis 2002	Cambrian explosion / invertebrates / vertebrates	530000000	330000000
Modis 2002	First mammals	200000000	135000000
Modis 2002	First primates / asteroid collision	65000000	48000000
Modis 2002	First orangutan	17000000	11000000
Modis 2002	First hominids	6000000	3400000
Modis 2002	First stone tools	2600000	1600000
Modis 2002	Development of speech / Homo sapiens	1000000	500000
Modis 2002	Discovery of fire / hunting gathering society	500000	400000
Modis 2002	Emergence of “modern humans” / earliest burial of the dead / agrarian pastoral   / sociocultural systems	100000	65000
Modis 2002	Rock art / protowriting	35000	25000
Modis 2002	Agriculture / prehistoric nomadic bands / techniques for starting fire	10000	5000
Modis 2002	Discovery of the wheel / writing / archaic empires / large civilizations / Egypt     / Mesopotamia	5000	2500
Modis 2002	Democracy / city states / Greeks / Buddha	2500	500
Modis 2002	Christianity	2000	1325
Modis 2002	Gunpowder	675	175
Modis 2002	Renaissance (printing press) / discovery of new world / the scientific method	500	275
Modis 2002	Industrial revolution (steam engine) / political revolutions (French, USA)	225	125
Modis 2002	Modern physics / radio / electricity / automobile / airplane / capitalism & colonialism	100	50
Modis 2002	DNA / transistor / nuclear energy / W.W.II / cold war / sputnik	50	45
Modis 2002	Internet / human genome sequenced	5
Richard Coren	Big Bang	15000000000	11500000000
Richard Coren	Solidification of Earth Prokaryotic life	3500000000	2750000000
Richard Coren	Eukaryotic radiation	750000000	575000000
Richard Coren	Appearance of class Mammalia	175000000	142500000
Richard Coren	Appearance of superfamily Hominoidea	32500000	25500000
Richard Coren	Appearance of family Hominidae	7000000	5250000
Richard Coren	Appearance of genus Homo	1750000	1500000
Richard Coren	Appearance of archaic Homo sapiens	250000	180000
Richard Coren	Appearance of H. sapiens sapiens	70000	55000
Richard Coren	Development of communal villages	15000	11000
Richard Coren	Development of writing	4000	3441
Richard Coren	Development of printing	559	500
Richard Coren	Development of digital electronics and computing	59
Modis 2003	Big Bang	15500000000	5500000000
Modis 2003	Origin of Milky Way	10000000000	6000000000
Modis 2003	Origin of life on Earth	4000000000	2000000000
Modis 2003	First eukaryotes	2000000000	1000000000
Modis 2003	First multicellular life	1000000000	570000000
Modis 2003	Cambrian explosion	430000000	220000000
Modis 2003	First mammals	210000000	71000000
Modis 2003	First flowering plants	139000000	84400000
Modis 2003	Asteroid collision	54600000	26100000
Modis 2003	First hominids	28500000	12000000
Modis 2003	First orangutan	16500000	11400000
Modis 2003	Chimpanzees and humans diverge	5100000	2900000
Modis 2003	First stone tools	2200000	1645000
Modis 2003	Emergence of Homo Sapiens	555000	230000
Modis 2003	Domestication of fire	325000	125000
Modis 2003	Differentiation of human DNA types	200000	94300
Modis 2003	Emergence of “modern humans”	105700	69900
Modis 2003	Rock art, protowriting	35800	16600
Modis 2003	Invention of agriculture	19200	8200
Modis 2003	Techniques for starting fire	11000	6093
Modis 2003	Development of the wheel, writing	4907	2470
Modis 2003	Democracy	2437	997
Modis 2003	Zero and decimals invented in Indian arithmetic	1440	901
Modis 2003	Renaissance (printing press)	539	314
Modis 2003	Industrial Revolution (steam engine)	225	125
Modis 2003	Modern physics	100	50
Modis 2003	DNA structure described, transistor invented, nuclear energy	50	45
Modis 2003	Internet, human genome sequenced	5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Infinite Resource

There is no such thing as limited resources, there is only unlimited resourcefulness.

People often claim that infinite economic growth is impossible in a closed system. Besides the fact that planet Earth is not a closed system, a thousand tons of cosmic material falls onto Earth each year, it is not the confines of this system that constraints our growth, yet. Growth is by all practical scales and timeframes regulated by an open system, namely our brains. Its creativity and ingenuity knows no theoretical bounds and can be considered infinite. The cumulative knowledge it has been building has been growing for ever and continues to do so at a mindboggling pace of yearly doublings. It is this growth that has been paramount to our economic development.

When rivers flowed idly, its energy preserved in the flow, it was the knowledge of the waterwheel that enabled us to use part of that energy. The windmill provided means to tap into the energy of moving air. Coal was used in Roman times as jewelry, an increase in knowledge enabled its energetic potential and kickstarted the Industrial Revolution. Oil was a nuisance for many farmers in the 19^th century, until technologic progress unlocked its energy, and it powered the Oil age. Uranium knew practically no use, until science cracked nuclear fission.

 The basic flaw of the impossible infinite economic growth claim above is that it fails to recognize what our fundamental resource is. Because our fundamental resource is not oil or gas, nor had it been coal, wood, water or wind, our fundamental resource is our brains. When people were struggling in the Middle Ages to obtain food to not die of hunger, it was not due to lack of resources, but due to the lack of knowledge how to make use of these resources. The difference between the economy now and the economy a thousand years ago is not that there are more resources now, but that we have more knowledge to extract and effectively use resources. And when people in Africa are in danger of starvation, it is not due lack of (physical) resources, because its lands are bountiful, but again, a lack of knowledge and knowhow how to extract, obtain and use these resources effectively.

Of course our infinite creativity operates within the finite boundaries of our planet, but on system Earth so much energy circulates, that the impending end of the Oil Age, need not to be seen as the impending end of energetic and economic growth.

Look at the following graphic depiction of energy availability. The finite resources are in total amounts of energy, the renewables in yearly numbers, with a small reference for yearly energy consumption. The potential for solar is immense.

  

The practice of extracting this enormous potential of the suns energy, has begun rather recently, but it has grown explosively since. 

 

Solar power generating capacity grew by 73.3% in 2011. Total capacity grew by 29.3 GW to reach 63.4 GW. Capacity has grown almost ten-fold over the past 5 years and had been growing for an exponential rate for 35 years already, doubling every 2 years. Below I plotted the cumulative solar output up to 2009 and extrapolated it onwards and a rough estimate of the world energy use is also shown, in a logarithmic scale. Bar the fact that cumulative output over the years can not be simply added up to provide a grant total, it does give a feel of the enormous strides being made in the field of solar production.

And solar is not the only renewable that is growing, other renewables show similar trends.

  

The potential of solar is big, but when we would talk fusion, the energy potential of planet Earth takes on an incomprehensible size. Below I plotted the yearly contribution of the sun of the energy of system Earth again, now together with a circle representing nuclear fusion. Where the sun is about a mm in diameter, the diameter of the energy available from fusion is 6 meter, and only a fraction can be shown. In fact, given current energy use and taking it as constant, fusion from deuterium from sea water only, would be enough to provide us with 75 billion years of energy supply or roughly 5 times the age of the universe. Again, it is not the physical boundaries that are constraining us, but the lack of knowledge to perform fusion effectively is holding us back.

For fusion it is always said that it is 30 years away and always will be. I believe this not to be so, but let’s take a look at energy supply now, its growth and direction, and bring the discussion back to understandable and practical dimensions.

We talked solar, and solar is poised to become big. Already growing exponentially for 35 years straight, it will soon become a significant part of our energy supply. But not only solar has been growing, in fact, practically all sources of energy have seen increased production also those with finite reserves. If resources become ever more scarce the more we mine them, how come we produce more of it now than ever before?

One way of looking at resource extraction is as if it were a pyramid. The oil on top is of prime quality, achieved through unlikely and lengthy purification processes; it is both very pure and highly accessible, think of the oil that surfaced in Texas beginning of the 20^th century. Going downwards in the pyramid, oils of lesser quality and/or lesser accessibility are found, but these are also more plentiful, e.g. deep sea oil drilling. Further down oil has had practically no purification and remains within the so-called source rock, e.g. the Canadian tarsands.
Our ability to extract oil will then be related to two variables: the physical reality of how oil is present within Earth; the pyramid, versus our improving skills to find and extract oil. If our knowledge increases faster than that the pyramid empties, we will continuously increase our output. And judging our production of oil, which reached a new high in 2011, this is exactly what is happening.

 

Our ability to produce oil increases so fast, that every year the amount of proven reserves is actually increasing. And the years that we have oil left has risen from an estimated 30 years of proven reserves left in 1980, to 45 years left, 30 years later in 2010.

 

Natural gas can also be presented as a pyramid, here one with the reserves the lower 48 states of the US.

Also here productivity is foremost related to ingenuity, and ingenuity recently opened up new possibilities; fracking  and horizontal drilling enabled small pockets of gas within shales to be extracted that previously remained out of reach. So gas production has been sharply rising as well.

 

Coal use is growing as well, in fact all sources of energy show growth except for nuclear, which suffers from social backlash and safety concerns.

Picture our energy production as the mind’s competition with the physical, the mind over matter. In this system Earth we can get our energy from many different places. Solar might be cheapest in sunny areas, coal in areas where externalities are neglected, hydro electricity where rivers have might and gas where reserves are plenty. Many resources can substitute each other, some are mobile and all can produce electricity.

 Our energy use is not and never has been a function of the actual physical availability of resources, it has always been a function of increasing knowledge. The enormous amounts of energy available, its great variety in appearances, together with the exponentially increasing cumulative knowledge, leads to an ever increasing accessibility of energy for us humans. That’s why total energy use and even the energy per capita have been increasing as far back as we can measure them.

The end of the Silver Bubble

All things come to an end, especially bubbles.
Below the schematic representation of the way bubbles develop and deflate and what phases they go through. Below  it, a graph showing the rise and rise of silver during the last 8 years in a weekly graph of the price of the stuff in dollars per troy ounce. And for those who did not put two and two together, the graphs combined in the bottom graph.

The top we have had, denial we have heard and the bull trap ran its course. We are now returning to “normal”, meaning going back to the new “paradigm” we’ve established, that is: “Silver is not overpriced, it should be this expensive, the world has changed, this time it is different, we will never go back to the era of cheap silver, etc.”
But during the next slump this certainty will turn to fear, fear to capitulation, capitulation to despair.
I am sharpening my knives to ride this snake..  (That’s a disclaimer, I am not holding a position in silver at the moment.)

Peak Nothing!

Mockingly did Homo Economicus (“Rational man”) take notice of the somewhat overenthusiastic predictions done by Harold Camping. The End of Times, originally planned on September 1994, was, after careful recalculation, shifted to the 21st of May, a day that passed like every other. Now we can look forward to the 21st of October as the actual date, I can’t wait… Of course, this is nothing new, predictions about the end of time have been made for centuries already and all have been proved false. One would not blame us for not taking the next claim by a self styled prophet that seriously.

But Homo Economicus is also not always that rational and in a somewhat other branch of doomsaying there are practically as many wrong predictions, but new predictions are treated with reverence and respect and the long list of failed predictions does not diminish the perceived importance of the new ones. I am talking about this so called Peak Everything; Peak Oil, Peak Coal, Peak Copper, Peak Gold, Peak Food, etc. and how it will be the end of our progress. These predictions are in line with our intuition (probably just like the predictions of mr. Camping are in line with the intuition of religious zealots) and we hold them as inevitable truths, no matter how many predictions fail to materialize.

The site http://rayharvey.org/index.php/2010/01/peak-oil/  lists some of those predictions on Peak Oil. Lines like:

“Reserves to last only thirteen years” (1939, Department of the Interior).

“Reserves to last thirteen years” (1951, Department of the Interior, Oil and Gas Division).

“We could use up all of the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade” (President Jimmy Carter speaking in 1978 to the entire world).

Are in hindsight quite amusing, but were seen as genuinely valid and dire predictions at the time. In the meanwhile the production of oil has increased almost continuously, right through all predictions of Peak Oil. Just like Harold Camping the date of Peak “Resource of Choice” is moved ever further into the future, but it would be more honest for most people to admit that frankly they don’t have a clue what is going on. The book Peak Everything by Richard Heinberg is a good example of the commonly held view, it shows many graphs of different resources which have become more abundantly available until now and will show a decline in the near future. In other words, all reality (the past) points towards increase and all subjective predictions (the future) points towards decrease. President Carter probably made his above statement based on an exactly similar looking graph, with the peak placed in 1978.

The problem with all these false predictions is the concept called paradigm. A paradigm can be defined as a point of reference with which the reality is experienced. When in 1900 oil flowed from the shallow earth, that was your reality. That oil could be extracted five thousand meters beneath the ocean floor, would’ve been impossible to realize. We are, in fact, constantly trapped within our paradigm, in which it is by definition impossible to see the solutions of tomorrow for the problems of today. Constantly we see the boundaries, the end of growth, and constantly we apparently do not see our historic ability to overcome those boundaries would we ever threaten to reach them. Because that is what has always happen, approach the boundary, market mechanisms explode the price of resources, remarkable creativity and ingenuity is used to overcome those boundaries, the paradigm is shifted and we see a new boundary on the horizon again.

This process is what gives us our intuition of Peak Resource and what makes it impossible to ever fully determine the absolute limits of resources of Earth, because the estimate is based on the limited knowledge of the now.

What does this all mean for the future? Technological progress improves faster than resource reserves diminish. This was the case when coal was our primary energy source, when wood was it and when flint was it. That is why the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stones and the Oil Age will not end because we run out of oil. Through all paradigm shifts, electricity becomes ever cheaper, e.g. the price per kWh taking in account inflation, decreased by 95% in the 20th century. Metals have been cheapening for centuries and the commodity price index is down to 30% since 1845.

We have been underestimating human ingenuity and our problem solving abilities since the beginning of time and many voices can be heard today that problems appear insolvable. Now resource prices are anomalously high, due to the fact that Asia has linked up with the global market, sparking fears that resources will be too few. But also Asians will prove to be more problem solvers, than problem creators, just like the Western world and electricity and metals will become ever cheaper in the 21st century. Earth can provide ample, it is only lack of imagination and an acceptance of the reigning boundaries that blinds us.

Only one resource truly matters and that is the human mind.

Goklany, Indur M. The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives On a Cleaner Planet (2007)

 

The Economist, Feb 10th 2005

 

Richard Heinberg, Peak Everything

Go forth and multiply; on the joy of population growth

The human mind is our fundamental resource

- J.F.Kennedy, 20-02-1961

 After the last Ice Age rising sea levels flooded the land bridge between Tasmania and Australia and effectively separated the islanders from the mainland. When Abel Tasman discovered the island 8000 years later, five thousand Aborigines were living there. Isolated, they had not only missed the progress of the mainland, but they had collectively lost knowledge. They did not use bone tools anymore, but made their tools of stone once again and they did not wear clothes, but rubbed their bodies with seal fat to keep warm. A collective of five thousand people was unable to maintain their level of knowledge, let alone be able to move it forward: technological regression.

 

Malthusian Catastrophe, AKA This time it’s different

In 1798 Thomas Malthus wrote his Essay on the Principle of Population and the Malthusian school of thought was born; population growth is exponential, Earth’s resources are limited and one of these days this equation will run amuck evoking a catastrophe of enormous proportions. Since then every era has had his envisioned limits and its intellectuals seeing the end of progress because of them. In 1865 William Jevons predicted in The Coal Question Peak Coal. He foresaw the end of progress and stated “I must point out the painful fact that such a rate of growth will before long render our consumption of coal comparable with the total supply. In the increasing depth and difficulty of coal mining we shall meet that vague, but inevitable boundary that will stop our progress.” Paul Ehrlich visioned starvation a hundred years later, stating “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.” (from: Population Bomb, 1971). England had Peak Coal, but progress did not stop there and Paul Ehrlich’s book just got its first print and the Green Revolution was well underway, the percentage of malnourished people shrank from 37% in 1970 to 17% in 2007 even as the population of the World doubled.

Nowadays, concern about overpopulation is the intellectual norm. Supposedly the Earth is not able to sustain this many people, let alone an even bigger population. And if Peak Oil will not be our end, surely the use of that oil and the carbon emitted will. But the opposite was true in the past, the larger the population, the better we all had it. What makes this time different? Why would the envisioned limits really be the constraint this time?

 

The more, the merrier

Since Malthus published his book the world population showed a seven fold increase. In the meantime quality of life made huge strides forward. In Indur Goklany’s excellent Improving State of the World a wealth of data is used to show that the human condition improved tremendously the last few centuries. In the face of all the doomsayers’ predictions nearly every human related measurable parameter has improved and is in better shape than ever. Healthy longevity, food availability, child mortality, maternal mortality, mobility, illiteracy, poverty, child labour, amount of worked hours, suffrage and freedom; all showed massive worldwide improvements. Recently even air and water quality have been improving in the developed world. Also forests and nature reserves have been growing, with many animals flourishing again, this in contrast with the popular opinion that economic growth necessarily comes at the cost of the environment. In the meanwhile, prices of resources become ever cheaper or put differently, we use an ever smaller portion of our income to buy energy, food, water and metals.

 

Limits of planet Earth

The limits of planet Earth are not absolute; they are solely constraint by the reigning paradigm. Wood, peat, coal, but also oxes, horses, wind and water energy (in the Middle Ages) were all used in their paradigm to their absolute maximum, than they were substituted by a new energy source through innovation and progress continued robustly. By definition one cannot see beyond your paradigm, which provides a sense of finiteness to the people living in the paradigm. This feeling is totally unjustified when looking at the facts. Of all energy circulating on planet Earth, we only use a tiny fraction. In fact, if we compare the World’s energy consumption with the energy the Earth receives from the sun alone, we only use 0.01%, or put differently, each year the Earth receives twice as much energy from the sun as all fossil and uranium reserves put together. It is only a lack of imagination that this energy is not up for grabs.

At this moment the paradigm shift is happening, the solar energy sector is the fastest growing energy sector in the world, doubling output every two years, for thirty five years already, in twenty more years the sun will provide all our energy needs.

 

Why should we want more people?

Man is a problem solver. We are intrinsically wired to want to solve problems, from puzzles to mathematical problems to curing diseases. The bigger the population the more we can create, build, innovate and solve. The more we can specialize and use our brains as efficiently as possible for ever more complex problems. But also, the more we are, the more music, movies and art we will make. The more Einsteins, Mozarts and Peles we will come to know.

All major problems mankind is facing, problems like cancer, aids, food, water and energy supply and global warming, we will solve sooner with more people than with less. This is because the limits are not defined by the Earth yet, but only by our creativity. In its essence every new person is primarily a problem solver, not a problem. That’s why up to now the bigger the population, the better we all have it and that’s why we are allowed  to embrace every new human being with rejoice and not need to fear a growing population. Like the average human being in existence, a new baby will probably be a net problem solver, an enrichment to the lives surrounding it and a contributor to the World’s wealth. In other words, a welcome addition to team human.

 

The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones

There are caves in the Netherlands, tens of meters beneath the ground, kilometres long where my ancestors in the Stone Age were digging for pieces of flint. Possibly they were also afraid that they would run out of their essential resource, their way of making fire and tools, trapped as they were in their paradigm. Also they would not be able to see the solutions of tomorrow for the problems of today and also they could not presume there was only one resource fundamental for our progress. That resource is the most complex object in the known universe. It is the ultimate resource: our brains and their  potential for creativity is infinite.

 

Ehrlich, Paul R. The Population Bomb. (1971).

 Goklany, Indur M. The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives On a Cleaner Planet (2007)

 Jevons, William Stanley ,The Coal Question; An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal Mines (1865)

 Malthus, Thomas R. An Essay On The Principle Of Population (1798)

 Ridley, Matt, The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (2010)

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